Nepal’s digital economy looks enormous on paper — and confusing in practice. Broadband subscription rates exceed 140% of the population, yet roughly 44–52% of people remain effectively offline depending on whether you trust subscription counts or household surveys. Electronic payments surged 71% to NPR 98.43 trillion in FY 2024/25, while many SMEs still report COD above 50% of orders.

This page is the baseline edition of the annual Nepal Digital Economy Report. It reconciles the best public secondary data available in August 2026 and launches the primary SME survey that will produce original, citable statistics in 2027.

Call for participants: Nepali business owners can join the pilot panel. You receive a free benchmark summary; we publish only anonymized aggregates.

The numbers problem (why we need primary research)

If you Google “Nepal e-commerce market size,” you will see estimates from US$500 million to US$888 million+ for 2024, with 2028 projections ranging from US$600 million to over US$2 billion. Internet penetration figures swing from 48.4% (ITU) to 56% (DataReportal) to 145%+ “broadband penetration” (NTA subscription counts).

These are not typos — they measure different things:

What is measured High figure Low figure Why they differ
Internet access 56% users (16.6M) 48.4% users ITU vs Kepios methodology; Oct 2025 cutoffs
Broadband “penetration” 143–152% — Multi-SIM, multi-device, family-shared connections
Household internet — ~40% NLSS 2022/23 — home access, not individual
E-commerce GMV ~$888M (2024 est.) $500–700M Definition of GMV; marketplace vs social commerce
Digital literacy — ~31% Skills gap despite SIM ownership

Our position: Macro statistics from NRB and NTA describe the rails. They do not tell you what a Kathmandu clinic, a Pokhara trekking agency, or a Biratnagar retailer actually spends on Meta ads — or whether they accept Khalti at checkout. That requires asking businesses directly.

Connectivity baseline (2025–2026)

Internet users vs infrastructure

According to DataReportal’s Digital 2026: Nepal report, 16.6 million people used the internet in late 2025 — 56.0% of the population, with roughly 13 million still offline. Mobile connections stood at 32.4 million (109% of population), but many SIMs are voice/SMS-only or secondary lines.

The ITU ICT Development Index 2026 paints the same story differently: Nepal scored 83.7 on meaningful connectivity (infrastructure, devices, affordability) but only 52.5 on universal connectivity (actual adoption and use) — a 31-point usage gap. ITU estimated 48.4% internet use, 73.1% mobile ownership, and 90% 3G / 81.6% 4G population coverage.

Geography sharpens the divide. The Diplomat cites 79.3% internet penetration in Kathmandu Valley versus 14% in Karnali Province, with digital literacy around 31% nationally despite expanding fiber and 4G build-out.

NTA data (Mangsir 2082) shows 30.3 million broadband subscriptions — mobile broadband alone at 26.1 million 4G lines. Treat subscription counts as capacity, not daily active users.

Digital payments baseline (FY 2024/25)

Nepal Rastra Bank figures reported in September 2025 show the payment stack accelerating:

Channel FY 2024/25 volume Year-on-year
All electronic transactions NPR 98.43 trillion +71%
QR payments NPR 958.38 billion ~2× (315.7M txns)
Mobile banking NPR 5.018 trillion +45%
Digital wallets (aggregate) NPR 506.31 billion +67%
E-commerce (NRB category) NPR 13.53 billion +53%

At the company level:

  • eSewa reported 10.1 million users and 560,000 merchants, with Rs 21.40 billion revenue in FY 2081/82 (Techmandu).
  • Fonepay processed 300 million QR transactions (>Rs 766 billion) and 140 million interbank transactions (Rs 2.834 trillion), holding an estimated ~86% payment-system-operator share ahead of its IPO (Clickmandu).
  • NRB has licensed 26 digital wallet providers.

What this means for SMEs: National wallet growth is real, but it aggregates bill pay, P2P, and merchant QR. Our survey asks merchants for checkout mix — COD vs eSewa/Khalti vs Fonepay QR vs bank transfer — because that is what determines e-commerce unit economics.

See also: Payment gateways guide · E-commerce in Nepal

E-commerce baseline (conflicting but directionally clear)

Independent estimates place Nepal’s 2024 e-commerce GMV between roughly US$500 million and US$888 million, with online retail still under 5% of total retail in most analyses. Gurkha Technology’s e-commerce research notes sector volatility — including platform layoffs and the closure of major homegrown players — even as smartphone and wallet adoption rise.

Directionally consistent facts:

  • Daraz remains the dominant marketplace (often cited at 50–60% share).
  • Mobile drives 85–90%+ of marketplace traffic in industry reports.
  • ~10,000 e-commerce businesses operate nationally (estimate; no single registry).
  • Average order values cluster around NPR 1,500–5,000 depending on city tier.

Projections for 2028 range from ~US$600 million to US$1.2 billion+ depending on CAGR assumptions (5–20%). We will not pick one projection as “truth” in the final report — we will publish what surveyed businesses report and show macro context separately.

Related: Daraz seller guide · Start an online store

Social platforms & ad surfaces (2026)

From DataReportal (Oct 2025):

Platform Reach (Nepal) Notes
All social identities 14.8M (50% pop.) +6.9% YoY
Facebook 14.8M ad reach Primary discovery for SMEs
Instagram 4.35M ad reach Strong for visual categories
LinkedIn 2.30M members B2B; registered not MAU

89.3% of internet users used at least one social platform. Alternative trackers (e.g. NapoleonCat, Apr 2026) show higher Facebook estimates (~17.7M) because of different scraping methodology — another reason primary spend data matters.

Academic work in Kathmandu (JAAR 2023, n=423) found 75% of enterprises say digital marketing matters, but only 45% actively use it. Among adopters, social media presence explained the largest share of engagement variance (~56.5%). Surkhet SME research (JNMR 2024, n=167) confirms positive links between digital marketing, customer engagement, and revenue — with budget and skills as primary barriers.

Our survey extends this with 2026 spend bands, TikTok allocation, and provincial samples outside Kathmandu.

Related: Google vs Meta decision guide · LinkedIn B2B Nepal

Primary survey — what we will measure

The Nepal Digital Economy Business Survey 2026 targets ≥100 valid responses before publishing topline statistics. Segmentation: Kathmandu Valley vs provinces, sector, and revenue band.

Core metrics (2026 wave)

  1. Monthly digital ad spend by channel (Google, Meta, TikTok, influencer, content/SEO, agency retainer)
  2. Payment method share at checkout (wallet, COD, Fonepay QR, bank transfer, card)
  3. Sales channel mix (marketplace-only vs own site vs social DM vs physical)
  4. Agency vs in-house marketing split and retainer bands
  5. Top 3 lead channels and top barriers (coded + open text)
  6. Analytics maturity (GA4, Pixel, Looker Studio, none)

Methodology principles

  • Minimum n=100 before publishing proportions with confidence intervals
  • Mixed mode: online form + 15-minute phone validation on 20% random subsample
  • Anonymized storage; aggregate tables only in public report
  • Wilson score 95% CIs on key proportions
  • Student researchers (IT204 / PRC112) for provincial recruitment under faculty supervision

Field timeline

Phase When Goal
Pilot Aug 2026 10 businesses; refine questions
Wave 1 Sep–Nov 2026 Open collection; 8–10 responses/week
Analysis Dec 2026 Clean, segment, CI tables
Report v1 Jan 2027 Blog + downloadable PDF

Survey preview (key questions)

Section A — Business profile
Province, Valley vs non-Valley, industry, revenue band, headcount.

Section B — Digital presence
Sales channels (marketplace, own site, social DM, physical), website type, Google Business Profile status.

Section C — Marketing spend (last 30 days)
Total spend band; % split across Google, Meta, TikTok, influencer, SEO, agency retainer; in-house vs agency.

Section D — Payments
Checkout mix (% COD, eSewa/Khalti, Fonepay QR, bank, card); average order value; COD share.

Section E — Outlook
Top 3 lead channels; barriers (budget, skills, logistics, trust); digital revenue trend vs 12 months ago; analytics tools used.

Full instrument: internal research kit (24 questions, ~10 minutes). Contact us to receive the live form link when the pilot opens.

What the v1 report will deliver (Jan 2027)

  1. Executive summary — 10 citable bullets with CIs
  2. Secondary reconciliation — macro context vs SME reality
  3. Primary tables — spend, payments, channels by Valley/province/sector
  4. Sector snapshots — retail, tourism, professional services
  5. Implications — for SMEs, agencies, and policy readers
  6. Appendix — methodology, questionnaire, glossary

Suggested citation (after publish): KC, A. (2027). Nepal Digital Economy Report 2026. Gurkha Technology.

How to participate

Nepali business owners with ≥12 months operating history and sales to Nepal customers:

  1. Contact Gurkha Technology with subject “Digital Economy Panel 2026”
  2. Complete the 10-minute survey when the pilot link is sent
  3. Receive a free benchmark summary (your answers vs anonymized panel medians)

No payment required. No client relationship required. Aggregates only unless you opt into a named case study.

Sources (desk research, Aug 2026)

Disclaimer: Secondary figures are cited as published; primary SME statistics will be added after field collection completes.